Gold Holding Structure While Oil Cools – Is a New High Coming?

Market Situation

Gold is currently trading in a very clean and readable structure.

Price is moving between a clear support at 4,790 and resistance at 4,860, and honestly, this range is telling us a lot about the current market behavior.

We are not in a panic move.
We are not in a breakout yet.

We are in a decision zone.

At the same time, oil is starting to show signs of weakness, trading around 91$ with visible selling pressure — and this is where things start to get interesting.

Technical Perspective

From a pure price action view:

• Gold is still respecting higher lows on the medium-term structure
• The market failed to break lower despite multiple attempts
• Buyers are still defending key zones

This tells us one thing clearly:
The upside structure is still valid.

As long as price holds above 4,790, the bullish scenario remains intact.

A break above 4,860 opens the door for continuation — and that’s where momentum could start building again.

Oil vs Gold – The Hidden Shift

Now let’s talk about oil.

Oil at 91$ with selling pressure is not just a number… it’s a shift in sentiment.

Previously:

• Rising oil = inflation fears = pressure on gold (due to strong USD expectations)

But now:

• Oil cooling down = easing inflation pressure
• Which gives central banks more flexibility
• And this reduces pressure on gold

So indirectly…
Oil weakness is becoming supportive for gold.

Fundamental Layer (What’s Changing?)

The market right now is slowly transitioning from:

• Fear of inflation staying high
  to
• Expectations that inflation might stabilize

This shift is very important.

Because once the market starts pricing in:

• Slower inflation
• Potential rate stability or cuts

Gold becomes attractive again — not just as a safe haven, but as a value play.

Can Gold Reach 5,600?

This is not a crazy question anymore.

If:

• Gold breaks above 4,860
• Oil continues to weaken
• USD loses momentum

Then yes… the path toward 5,600 becomes realistic on a medium-term basis.

But step by step.

Right now:

• We are still inside a range
• Waiting for confirmation

Conclusion

Gold is doing exactly what strong markets do…

Holding structure while everything around it is shifting.

• Support at 4,790 is key
• Resistance at 4,860 is the trigger
• Oil weakness is adding fuel to the bullish case

So the mindset here is simple:

Don’t rush…
Don’t predict…
Let the breakout confirm the next move.

Prepared by: Motasm Adel,
Senior Market Analyst – OneRoyal

Disclaimer:
Trading involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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